Full-Year 2025 Revenue Reaches 21.97 Trillion Yuan
China's general public budget revenue — comprising tax and non-tax income — reached 21.97 trillion yuan ($3.03 trillion) in 2025, growing 1.3 percent year on year, according to the Ministry of Finance. While the headline figure represented positive growth, the pace was modest by historical standards, reflecting ongoing pressures from the property sector downturn and broader structural economic adjustment. The growth momentum accelerated in the second half of the year, buoyed by a package of incremental fiscal policies announced at the September 26 Political Bureau meeting.
2026 Central Government Outlook: Revenue Set to Decline
The Ministry of Finance projected a 3.5 percent decline in central government fiscal revenue to 9.7 trillion yuan ($1.34 trillion) in 2026, even as expenditure continues to increase as part of a "more proactive" fiscal policy stance. Tax revenue is forecast to rise 3.6 percent to 9.47 trillion yuan, but non-tax revenue is expected to plunge 75 percent to 227 billion yuan, mainly due to reduced income from state-owned capital operations and fees for the use of state-owned assets. General public budget expenditure is projected to increase 4.5 percent to 14.75 trillion yuan.
Fiscal Stimulus Rationale
The projected revenue contraction in 2026 reflects Beijing's willingness to sacrifice near-term fiscal balance in favor of economic support. The expanding fiscal deficit — driven by infrastructure investment, social spending, and the ongoing trade-in goods subsidy program — is intended to offset weakness in private investment and property-related revenues. The government's fiscal stance is widely characterized by analysts as the most expansionary in several years.
Regional Disparities
The fiscal picture varies significantly across regions. Wealthy coastal provinces such as Guangdong and Jiangsu continue to post strong fiscal collections, while property-dependent local governments in the interior face mounting revenue shortfalls. The central government has responded by increasing transfer payments to lower-tier regions, with total transfer payments reaching 10.29 trillion yuan in 2025.
Source: Ministry of Finance, March 2026; National Bureau of Statistics, 2025 annual data